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Alison Stein's avatar

I don’t know about this particular predictive model, but as a data nerd I can offer that the state polls you mentioned, which are the only ones that might matter, are so tight that they just have to be within the margin of error. If that’s true, it means there’s no reason to have an especially good feeling about a +1, or be particularly worried about a -5ish, depending on the margin in a particular poll. My hunch is that these numbers aren’t saying anything other than this election looks a lot like the last many cycles, which is to say very tight and swingy. Of course that’s a little bonkers and dispiriting given a felon candidate etc., but still —I don’t see any real reason for more than the usual political despair!

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J_'s avatar

“Is it just the Gavin Newsom show forever? Where’s Gretchen Whitmer? Where is, god help us, Mayor Pete?”

C’mon Cros this is such JB Pritzker erasure. No love for our big guy?

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